TBT, the UltraShort 20+ Lehman Treasury ETF, pulled back to the bottom of a well-defined channel and looks to have held support. TBT closed Friday at $53.56. The top of the channel is around $63. I think that the bearish case for US Treasuries is compelling not only from the technical perspective (that it held a support trend-line - remember this is a Short ETF) but from a fundamental, macro-economic view as well. In both the bullish case and the bearish case for the economy, US Treasuries are like to decline in price. If the economy recovers, money should flow away from the Treasury market and into riskier assets such as stocks and corporate bonds. If the US economy falters and worries of high deficits erode confidence in the US as a "safe-haven" and "reserve" economy, investors are likely to sell Treasuries. TBT looks like a good trade with a stop at $48 and a target fro profit-taking around $63. With TBT about $53.50, that gives you a risk-return profile of 5.5 points on the downside and 9.5 points on the upside almost a 2 to 1 ratio.